Missiles, Drones, and the Echoes of Conflict: A Look at Iran–Israel Capabilities

The missile and drone capabilities of Iran and Israel have long been central to their security strategies and regional influence. By mid-2025, both nations had spent decades developing sophisticated arsenals, each tailored to their unique geographic, political, and military realities. The short but intense conflict of June 2025 offered a rare, real-time glimpse into how these systems perform under sustained pressure — and how quickly stockpiles, budgets, and technology can be tested. This comparison examines the state of each country’s missile and drone programs before the war, what changed during the fighting, and where they may go next.

Iran: From Quantity to Questions of Sustainability

Before June 2025, Iran’s missile arsenal was one of the largest in the region, estimated at over 3,000 ballistic missiles, with roughly 1,000 operational. These ranged from short-range systems like the Fateh-110 (200–300 km) to medium-range missiles such as the Shahab-3 (~1,300 km) and Khorramshahr variants (~2,000 km). Officially, Iran maintained a self-imposed 2,000 km limit, but rumors persisted of the Khorramshahr-5 — an unverified system that, if operational, would mark Iran’s first true intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), allegedly capable of 12,000 km at Mach 16 while carrying a two-ton warhead. Footage released by Iranian state media showed what appeared to be a successful test launch, though independent analysts caution that the missile’s full capabilities and ICBM classification remain unconfirmed. Watch: Khorramshar-5 Missile Drones formed the other pillar of Iran’s pre-war force. The country produced 3,000–4,000 UAVs, from the low-cost Shahed-136 loitering munition ($20K–$50K per unit) to the Mohajer-6 ($100K–$500K) and long-endurance models like the Fotros and Ababil-5. Many were exported to partners and proxies, including Russia, Hezbollah, and Yemen’s Houthis.

The June conflict strained these inventories heavily. Iran launched over 550 ballistic missiles and more than 1,000 drones toward Israel and Gulf targets. Israeli defenses intercepted over 90% of the missiles, with only a few dozen striking populated areas, and neutralized nearly all drones, with fewer than 200 entering Israeli airspace and none causing significant damage. By late July, analysts estimated Iran’s operational missile count had fallen to 500–700, with multiple launch sites, command centers, and production facilities damaged. The cost of the missile campaign alone was estimated between $1.1 billion and $6.6 billion. Looking ahead, Iran faces the challenge of replenishing its arsenal under sanctions and reduced industrial capacity. Analysts expect continued investment in solid-fuel SRBMs, claimed hypersonic systems like the Fattah-2, and possibly AI-guided drone swarms. Western intelligence assessments suggest that, if pursued, a viable ICBM could emerge by around 2035 through adaptation of Iran’s space-launch technology.